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Joining the Taxpayers' Union costs only $25 and entitles you to attend our annual conference, AGM and other events.
Live at the Hamilton West candidate debate we are cohosting with the Working Group (click here for live stream).
Exclusive to members and supporters, we can reveal the results of the eleventh Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.
The polling period was Thursday 1 - Friday 9 September 2022.
Here are the headline results:
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
National |
37.0% |
↑3.0 |
Labour |
33.4% |
↓1.8 |
Greens |
9.9% |
↑0.4 |
ACT |
12.4% |
↑1.9 |
Māori |
1.5% |
↓2.0 |
NZ First |
1.6% |
↓1.0 |
Other |
4.2% |
↓0.5 |
National bounces back from 34% in August to 37% in September and Labour drop 2 points to 33%. ACT up 1 point to 12% and Greens static on 10%.
The smaller parties are Māori Party at 1.5%, NZ First at 1.6%, New Conservatives 1.5%, and TOP 0.7%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
The projected seats for the centre-right crosses the 61 seat majoirty threshold going from 58 seats to 63. The centre-left drops from 57 seats to 55. This means National and Act would be able to form a Government.
Ardern drops 3 points to 37% while Luxon bounces up from 20% to 26%. David Seymour has 6.6%
In fourth place as Preferred PM is Chloe Swarbrick on a respectable 3.2%. That is higher than both Green co-leaders combined with Marama Davidson on 1.4% and James Shaw 1.0%.
Preferred Prime Minister |
This month |
Change from last month |
Jacinda Ardern |
36.5% |
↓3.0 |
Christopher Luxon |
25.9% |
↑6.4 |
David Seymour |
6.6% |
↓1.1 |
Chloe Swarbrick |
3.2% |
- |
Winston Peters |
2.6% |
↓1.6 |
Marama Davidson |
1.4% |
- |
James Shaw |
1.0% |
- |
The cost of living at 22% (-1%) remains the most important issue followed by the economy more generally at 15%. Health is in third place at 7% closely followed by Law & Order on 6%.
The net country direction drops to a record low of -23%. 32% of New Zealanders think the country is heading in the right direction and 54% say the wrong direction.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 1 September to Friday 9 September 2022. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 20,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll”.
Exclusive to members and supporters, we can reveal the results of the eleventh Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.
The polling period was Sunday 03 - Thursday 11 August 2022.
Here are the headline results:
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
National |
34.0% |
↓3.0 |
Labour |
35.2% |
↑0.5 |
Greens |
9.5% |
↑1.0 |
ACT |
11.0% |
↑1.0 |
Māori |
3.5% |
↓0.2 |
NZ First |
2.6% |
↓0.7 |
Other |
4.7% |
↑1.4 |
Support for the governing Labour Party has risen 0.5 points to 35.2%, while the opposition National Party has dropped 3 points to 34.0%. ACT has risen 0.5 points to 10.5%. The Greens have risen 1 point to 9.5%. No other parties reach the 5% threshold. Te Pāti Māori has dropped 0.2 points to 3.5%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
For the fourth consecutive month in the Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll, the Centre-Right bloc is ahead of the Centre-Left. However, the Centre-Right no longer has enough seats to govern without the support of Te Pāti Māori.
Centre-Left (Lab/Green) = 57 (+2) Centre-Right (Nat/ACT) = 58 (-2) Centre (NZF/Māori) = 5 (0).
This puts Te Pāti Māori in the position of King/ Queen maker with whichever coalition they choose becoming Government. This assumes all electorate seats are held.
Support for Jacinda Ardern as preferred Prime Minister has dropped by 0.7 points to 39.5%. Luxon’s slide continues from 28% in June 2022 to 22.4% last month and this month a drop of a further 2.9 points takes him to 19.5%. David Seymour has risen 1.8 points to 7.7% and Winston Peters has almost doubled his support going from 2.3% to 4.2% (+1.9).
Preferred Prime Minister |
This month |
Change from last month |
Jacinda Ardern |
39.5% |
↓0.7 |
Christopher Luxon |
19.5% |
↓2.9 |
David Seymour |
7.7% |
↑1.8 |
John Key |
1.9% |
↓1.8 |
Winston Peters |
4.2% |
↑1.9 |
In terms of what issues respondents identify as their major voting issue, COVID-19 continues to fade in importance. Focus on the cost of living has also eased off.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was conducted from Wednesday 3 August to Thursday 11 August 2022. The median response was collected on Sunday 07 August 2022. The sample size was 1,200 eligible New Zealand voters 800 by phone and 400 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 20,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,200 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll”.
Subject: Tackling the culture of dishonesty in Wellington re three waters
Dear Friend,
Thank you again for supporting the fight against Nanaia Mahuta’s Three Waters proposals. Further to Peter Williams’ (no relation!) note last week, I’m emailing to ask for your feedback on a matter we have been thinking about for some time. This email is longer than usual, but we think you'll agree it needs to be for what we're considering.
First though, in case you missed it, our formal submission to the Select Committee on the Three Waters "Water Entities Bill" is here. This emaiL concerns the legal opinion appended to that submission – you may have heard our lawyer interviewed this morning on "Today FM", and the media release summarising the opinion is copied at the end of this email.
Since David Farrar and I co-founded the Taxpayers’ Union in 2013, we have noticed growing public sector tolerance of dishonesty. There has always been some expectation of manipulation and ‘spin’ in the media. But we could expect Ministerial advisers and contracted professionals to maintain their own standards. At the least, they would stay silent when Ministers were being “political”. Now it seems agencies and public servants feel compelled to collude in lying.
In the context of the Three Waters campaign, we’ve seen an unprofessional approach in the way people who ought to know better perpetrated and repeated some Minister’s claims about Three Waters. We have long been worried that they’ve seemed untrue (or at the very least, calculated to be misleading). Take two examples:
Public service professional standards of honesty and integrity have traditionally relied on the State Services Commissioner (now the "Public Service Commissioner") to maintain. We fear, however, that the Public Services Commission has deteriorated just as much as the public sector agencies it is set up to monitor. We have not seen it effectively disciplining agencies which have been dishonest or used public money for political advertising campaigns (NZTA, for example).
So in that context I asked lawyers Brigitte Morten and Stephen Franks for an opinion on Minister Mahuta’s false claims about Three Waters reforms.
We wanted a strict legal opinion on whether minister Mahuta was in breach of the Fair Trading Act and securities legislation regarding the claims she was making about councils owning “shares” in the Three Waters assets – i.e. would she be a crook if this was the context of a share offer to the public?
The opinion we got back, which has also been peer reviewed by a Queen's Counsel, is probably the most damning legal opinion I have ever read. It concludes that Minister Mahuta's claims regarding ownership have been "calculated to deceive Parliamentarians, and when it becomes law, to deceive New Zealanders generally".
The legal opinion is very detailed, but it is not hard to understand. It calls the claims of retention of local ownership "false, misleading and deceptive" as "councils are expressly denied the rights of possession, control, derivation of benefits, and disposition that are the defining attributes of ownership". Gary Judd QC comments in his review of the legal opinion: "When all the lying statements are put together, as [the] opinion does, the government’s effrontery is breath-taking."
While the opinion says the Minister can’t be prosecuted for criminal wrongdoing because her comments were not made "in trade" it hadn’t occurred to us that those party to Ministers’ false assurance could potentially be liable and held to account.
Most notably they raise the possibility that culpability could reach any professional advisors on the Ministers "Governance Working Group" on three waters governance, and the council's lobby group (that sold out to the Government), Local Government New Zealand.
In my experience, lawyers usually hedge their bets and understate wrongdoing. But that isn’t the case here. The lawyers think there is a clear breach of not only the usual standards of honesty and fair dealing, but of the law. Have a read of the opinion and judge for yourself.
So we want you feedback. We’ve taken the first step and informed the Commerce Commission (our lawyer's letter is here).
If the Commerce Commission don’t act promptly, should we seek advice on the steps on a private prosecution? That would be a big trigger to pull – it would likely send shockwaves through Wellington (in the best possible way). But how else can we STOP the dishonesty, force the Government (or at least those working for it) to acknowledge that Three Waters is an asset grab – that council’s won’t “own” the assets in any meaningful way?
Most importantly how do we re-establish expectation that public servants’ statements are truthful in the old-fashioned sense – that they will not allow themselves to be misused to deceive, by omission or commission?
For the politicians, the task of keeping them honest rests at the ballot box – but our democracy relies on a professional public service that is truthful and enjoys the confidence of all New Zealanders as straight shooters. That can mean 'free and frank' advice to Ministers, and telling them things they don't want to hear. We cannot let it stand that the bureaucracy are playing politics and joining hands in political and legal deceptions on the public.
So have a read of the opinion, let us know your thoughts, and I will ensure each and every reply is read as we work out where to from here.
Thank you for your support.
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PS. For those of you who have marked the date - the Water Users Group is finally in Court tomorrow! They are there to argue that the official advice provided to and relied upon by Minister Mahuta (the advice that she claims says that Three Waters is necessary for the Crown to comply with the Treaty) should be made available for public security. To my immense frustration the High Court has prohibited those who are funding the cause from sitting in on or listening to the hearing. I am hoping to sit down with one of the two QCs who are arguing that case tomorrow or Friday, and will update all of those who have chipped into that cause just as soon as I have news to give you. You can read the memo from the Court on the reason we cannot watch here, and the latest update from the Water Users' Group here.
MEDIA RELEASE
Legal Opinion: Three Waters Bill “calculated to deceive” – Minister’s professional advisers possibly liable as party to the fraud
Like tens of thousands of New Zealanders, the Taxpayers’ Union submitted to the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee on Three Waters (Water Services Entities Bill). With the Union’s submission was a bombshell legal opinion.
Ministers have repeated assurances that councils will continue to own water assets under the proposed ‘Three Waters’. But those claims are utterly false. Public law firm Franks Ogilvie, in an opinion reviewed by Gary Judd QC, lay out the extent to which these claims have been "calculated to deceive Parliamentarians, and when it becomes law, to deceive New Zealanders generally". The opinion is being released publicly today.
Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says, “It is clear the Government realised that they could not convince New Zealanders that handing over ownership of local assets was a good idea. So they’ve instead redefined 'ownership' to mean nothing, so they can promise continued community ‘ownership’ in an incredible display of contempt for the public, the truth and the law.”
The legal opinion is very detailed, but it is not hard to understand. It calls the claims of retention of local ownership “false, misleading and deceptive” as “councils are expressly denied the rights of possession, control, derivation of benefits, and disposition that are the defining attributes of ownership”. Gary Judd QC comments in his review of the legal opinion: “When all the lying statements are put together, as [the] opinion does, the government’s effrontery is breath-taking.”
The legal opinion concludes that despite the obvious dishonesties, ministers are immune to prosecution under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 and the Fair Trading Act 1986 as they are not ‘in trade’.
Mr Williams continues, “But that defence does not apply to people assisting the Ministers in a professional capacity. That would include, for example, members of the Working Group on Three Waters governance that could be held liable as they operated ‘in trade’ as professionals providing a service and could be deemed complicit in making the untrue claims.”
“Additionally, legal experts found that Local Government New Zealand ‘could be found to be acting in trade in its provision of representation and advisory services', so their public statements promoting the lie that councils will ‘own’ water assets under Three Waters, could make them also liable to prosecution.”
The authors of the legal opinion do not mince words in their assessment of the situation stating: “Ministers appear to have cold-bloodedly decided to confuse Councils and ratepayers with false statements.”
Mr Williams says, “Ministers might dodge prosecution because they’re in politics, not ‘trade’, but the lawyers note the expectations in the Cabinet Manual and Standing Orders. They must not mislead the House and they must act to ‘the highest ethical standards'. However, the consequences for our elected members will not come from the courts, but at the ballot box.”
“It is difficult to see how the Government can proceed with such a discredited abuse of legislative process. The huge public opposition to the Bill came without knowing of such damning conclusions from respected legal experts. This is not a careless, technical, or understandable mistake in legislation. It is intentionally deceptive. The lies have been actively promoted by ministers, Working Group members, LGNZ, and various elected and non-elected officials."
“We’ll be seeing if anything effective can be done to restore customary honesty among those drawn into this ministerial cheating. If officials were forced to be complicit, they may need better support against ministerial pressure. We’ll be considering carefully whether authorities who punish and deter calculated dishonesty by business people, can do their job when the cheating comes from the top."
Access legal opinion at www.taxpayers.org.nz/calculated_to_deceive
ENDS
The fourth round of 'Public Interest' journalism funding was announced by NZ on Air this week, costing taxpayers $4,144,909.
So far $43,968,004 of the $55 million fund has been paid out to media organisations to fund a variety of projects, journalism roles and industry development.
The latest announcement includes $1.2 million for Allied Press, $374,245 for iwi news, $160,000 for The Spinoff to write about the 2022 local body elections and $39,380 to Metro Media Group to write a four-part series on how the arts get funded, and $800,000 for a programme introducing young people to journalism as a career. You can view the full list of Public Interest Journalism Funding (PIJF) to date here.
Results from a Taxpayers' Union commissioned Curia Market Research Poll
While media outlets recieving taxpayer funds deny that this biases their reporting, our scientific polling shows that Government funding undermines public trust and confidence in the media – something that is in itself harmful. Distrust in mainstream media pushes readers towards fringe information sources that may be perceived as more independent, but are less likely to provide accurate reporting. This risks a spiral effect: the more audiences turn away from mainstream media, the more politicians will be tempted to prop up the struggling outlets with more funding.
To be clear, New Zealanders are right to be concerned about the impact of Government funding on journalistic independence. One of the requirements of the PIJF is that recipients must "actively promote the principles of partnership, participation and active protection under Te Tiriti o Waitangi".
Our board member and former broadcaster Peter Williams put it well in his speech on our Stop Three Waters roadshow when he said, "where I come from, journalism is not 'actively promoting' anything. Journalism is about offering all sides of the story, examining facts around the issues and leaving the reader, the viewer or the listener to make up her or his mind on an issue".
Despite the name, there doesn't seem to be much public interest in the a lot of the content being produced. Online magazine The Spinoff recently published an article begging for donations because "thousands of readers have stopped donating over the past year."
The Spinoff has so far recieved $1,686,122 from the PIJF and used it to write articles about furries and Efeso Collins' campaign song. Apparently, this has not inspired loyalty from readers.
A sample of Spinoff articles funded through the Public Interest Journalism Fund
One looming problem caused by the PIJF is that significant funds have been allocated for struggling outlets to train and employ new journalists. But with the $55 million soon set to run dry, the Government will face immense pressure from the media to top up the funding, lest they have to lay off their new young journalists.
New Zealand media bosses and editors are protective of and loyal to their staff, and financially invested in keeping their outlets afloat. This presents an obvious conflict of interest in next year's general election campaign: media figures have a personal and financial interest in electing a Government that will protect their funding. New Zealanders will rightly view their election coverage with this in mind.
We're calling on all parties to remove this dangerous conflict of interest and restore faith in the media by ruling out further funding for private media after the election.
We're also calling on those outlets who have recieved PIJF funding to commit to repaying it. Click here to sign the petition.
Laurence Kubiak has been appointed to Chair the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.
Mr Kubiak is a high tech entrepreneur (CEO and shareholder at Nautech Electronics), Chair of Trustees Executors Ltd, a Director of Northpower, and recent Chair of the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra.
Last year Mr Kubiak stepped down as CEO of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, and prior to returning to New Zealand served in executive roles at Shell, BP, and British Telecom.
Mr Kubiak said “I’m delighted to have been asked to chair New Zealand’s leading voice for government transparency and fiscal prudence.”
“The Union stands for public spending that is efficient, transparent, and subject to appropriate accountability: values that are the heart of any robust system of governance. The Taxpayers’ Union gives a public voice to these values, a voice that will become stronger and even more important as we chart our course through these unsettled times.”
Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says, "Laurie’s deep experience and connections within both the private and Government sectors are enormously valuable as we scale up our campaigns for lower taxes, less waste, and more transparency. His previous role with NZIER, regarded as one of New Zealand’s best economic consultancies, demonstrates his commitment to sensible public policy – a commitment we share at the Taxpayers’ Union."
“Casey Costello has been our Acting Chair since the launch of our ‘Stop Three Waters’ campaign late last year. In that period the Union has continued to grow and mature as a force for better public policy. On behalf of all of our supporters, I want to thank Casey for her leadership and wisdom, and I am delighted that she is staying on the board to continue to guide the organisation.”
The Taxpayers’ Union board is made up of the two founders, David Farrar and Jordan Williams, with former National Party Minister of Finance Hon Ruth Richardson, former ACT Chief of Staff Cr Chris Milne, broadcaster Peter Williams, businesswoman Casey Costello, and Laurence Kubiak. All non-executive board members are volunteers.
Former chairs of the organisation include former TVNZ political reporter John Bishop (2013-17), and government affairs expert Barrie Saunders (2017-21).
Launched in 2013, the Taxpayers’ Union has grown to become the largest taxpayer pressure group in the world on a per-capita basis with some 180,000 New Zealanders subscribed and active supporters. The Union is funded by more than 19,000 individual members and donors. The Union is a member of the World Taxpayer Associations with Jordan Williams serving on the WTA’s board.
Joining the Taxpayers' Union costs only $25 and entitles you to attend our annual conference, AGM and other events.
With your support we can make the Taxpayers' Union a strong voice exposing waste and standing up for Kiwi taxpayers.
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