Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: July 2024
Here are the headline results for July's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to June 2024 |
|
National |
37.6% |
↑2.2 |
|
Labour |
25.9% |
↓3.5 |
|
Green |
12.5% |
↓0.2 |
|
ACT |
9.1% |
↓0.6 |
|
NZ First |
7.3% |
↑1.7 |
|
Māori |
3.5% |
↓0.5 |
|
Other |
4.2% |
↑1.0 |
National is up 2.2 points on last month to 37.6% while Labour drops 3.5 points to 25.9%. The Greens are relatively static on 12.5% (-0.2 points) while ACT drops marginally to 9.1% (-0.6 points). New Zealand First is up 1.7 points to 7.3% while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.5 points to 3.5%.
For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.4% (+1.6 points), Outdoors & Freedom is on 1.0% (-0.3 points), and the combined total for all other parties is 0.8%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to June 2024 |
|
National |
47 |
↑3 |
|
Labour |
33 |
↓3 |
|
Green |
16 |
nc |
|
ACT |
11 |
↓1 |
|
NZ First |
9 |
↑2 |
|
Māori |
6 |
nc |
National is up three seats on last month to 47 while Labour is down three seats to 33. The Greens are unchanged on 16 while ACT is down one on last month to 11 seats. New Zealand First is up two seats on last month to nine while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on six.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have an overhang of two seats and a total of 122 seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 67 is up four on last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down three to 55.
On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.
Christopher Luxon is up 9.1 points on last month to 34.5% while Chris Hipkins is down 1.5 points to 18.7%.
Chlöe Swarbrick is in third place on 10.9% (+2.3 points) followed by David Seymour (+0.6 points) and Winston Peters (+1.8 points) who are both on 5.6%.
5.0% (-3.3 points) of respondents still name Jacinda Ardern as their preferred Prime Minister.
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is on 1.8%, Chris Bishop is on 1.7%, Nicola Willis is on 1.2%, Marama Davidson is on 1.2%, Leighton Baker is on 0.4%, and Rawiri Waititi is on 0.3%.
14.9% (+1.0 points) of respondents strongly approved and 32.4% (+7.7 points) somewhat approved of the job the current Government is doing while 16.9% (-0.7 points) somewhat disapproved and 17.0% (-3.6 points) strongly disapproved. 17.7% (-4.5 points) were neutral while 1.1% (+0.1 points) were unsure.
This gives the Government a net approval rating of +13.4 (+13 points).
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Media Summary Statement
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between 4 and 8 July 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 3.4% were undecided on the party vote question. The full results are at www.taxpayers.org.nz/nztu_curia_poll_2407
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 04 to Monday 08 July 2024. The median response was collected on Sunday 07 July 2024.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 906. There were 34 (3.4%) undecided voters and 23 (2.3%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the NZ Political Polling Code, Research Association New Zealand Code of Practice, and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social Research.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.