NEW POLL: Centre-Right lead, Labour largest party, Seymour sees boost

NEW POLL: Centre-Right lead, Labour largest party, Seymour sees boost

Good news for the Coalition as they regain the lead in this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, conducted between 02 and 06 November – the first major national poll since Labour's capital gains tax policy announcement.

Despite the lead for the coalition, the poll shows Labour still keeps its spot as the largest party, gaining 2.1 points to 33.3 percent. National gained 0.6 points to 30.2 percent.

The Greens drop 2.8 points to 9.2 percent, while New Zealand First drops 1.5 points to 9.1 percent. ACT gains 2.0 points to 8.6 percent, while Te Pāti Māori drops 1.1 points to 3.3 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/tucurpoll_nov2025

For the minor parties, NZ Outdoors and Freedom was on 1.5 percent, TOP was on 1.2 percent, New Conservatives on 1.2 percent, and Vision NZ on 0.4 percent.

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in October 2025, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/2025polloct_taxpcur

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is up 3 to 62 seats. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down 1 to 60. On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could form a Government.

Labour gains 2 seats to 42, while National gains 1 seat to 39. The Greens drop 3 seats to 12, while New Zealand First drops 1 seat to 12. ACT gains 3 seats to 11, while Te Pāti Māori remain unchanged on 6.

Christopher Luxon has reclaimed the top spot as Preferred Prime Minister, rising 1.0 point to 20.8 percent. Chris Hipkins fell 0.3 points to 20.6 percent. Winston Peters is on 8.5 percent (-1.4 points), Chlöe Swarbrick is on 4.1 percent (-2.2 points), and David Seymour is on 7.7 percent (+3.7 points).

Luxon's net favourability continues to be negative at -10 percent (+4 points), and Hipkins remains negative at -2 percent (nc). Peters is on 2 percent (+5 points), while Seymour jumps 16 points to -11 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman Jordan Williams said:

"This poll will come as a relief for the Government. After a series of policy announcement by Labour, it appears to be gobbling up support from it's likely partner the Greens, rather than taking votes from the coalition."

"The much hyped capital gains tax appears to have caused a ripple, rather than a wave."