NEW POLL: National and Labour Take Big Hits; NZ First and Greens Gain

Bad news for National and Labour as they both take a beating in this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.

The poll, conducted between 01 October and 05 October, shows Labour retain its position as the largest party, dropping 2.6 points to 31.2 percent. National dropped 3.5 points to 29.6 percent. 

The Greens gain 1.3 points to 12.0 percent, while New Zealand First gains 2.5 points to 10.6 percent. ACT drops 0.1 points to 6.6 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gains 0.1 points to 4.4 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/2025polloct_taxpcur

For the minor parties, Freedoms NZ is on 2.3 percent (+1.5 points), TOP is on 1.6 percent (+0.5 points), NZ Loyal is on 1.0 percent (+1.0 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.6 percent (+0.6%).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in September 2025, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/sept2025_nztucurpoll

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Left remains on 61 seats. The combined seats for the Centre-Right drops 1 to 59. On these numbers, the Centre-Left bloc could form a Government.

Labour drops two seats to 40, while National drops 4 seats to 38. The Greens gain 2 seats to 15, while New Zealand First gains 3 seats to 13. ACT remains on 8, while Te Pāti Māori remain unchanged on 6.

Cost of Living remains voters' top issue on 26.4 percent (-1.1 points), followed by the Economy more generally at 17.4 percent (+1.3 points). Health is the next largest at 10.3 percent (-0.8 points), followed by Employment on 5.1 percent and Poverty on 4.1 percent.

Chris Hipkins has taken the lead as voters' Preferred Prime Minister, rising 3.2 points to 20.9 percent. Christopher Luxon fell 1.9 points to 19.8 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"Treasury's fiscal forecasts have shone National and Labour in terrible lights this month, and a combined 6.1 percent drop for the major parties is quite the vote of no confidence."

"Cost of living and the economy are still voters' major concerns. With the finest of margins between the left and right blocs, tackling these will be key as we head into election year."