NEW POLL: National Gain and ACT Fall; Coalition Can't Form Government

Mixed news for National in this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, with National gaining but the Coalition unable to form a Government.

The poll, conducted between 31 August and 02 September, shows Labour hold on to its spot as the largest party, gaining 0.2 points to 33.8 percent. National gained 1.3 points to 33.1 percent.

The Greens gain 0.9 points to 10.7 percent, while New Zealand First gains 0.3 points to 8.1 percent. ACT drop 1.9 points to 6.7 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gains 1.1 point to 4.3 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/sept2025_nztucurpoll

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.1 percent (-1.5 points), Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.8 percent (-0.3 points), Vision NZ is on 0.6 percent (+0.2 points), and New Conservatives are on 0.3 percent (+0.3 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in August 2025, available at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/augpoll2025_250808

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Left remains on 61 seats. The combined seats for the Centre-Right drops 1 seat from last month to 60. On these numbers, the Centre-Left bloc could form a Government.

Labour drops 1 seat from last month to 42, while National gains 2 to 42. The Greens gain 1 seat to 13, while New Zealand First remain on 10. ACT drops 3 seats to 8, while Te Pāti Māori remain unchanged on 6.

Cost of Living remains voters' top issues at 27.5 percent (+3.1 points), followed by the Economy more generally at 16.1 percent (-4.6 points). Health is the next largest at 11.1 percent (+1.1%), followed by Employment on 7.5 percent and Taxes on 4.7 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"With Labour and National tied on 42 seats each, it's neck and neck as we close in on the final year before the next election:"

"This Government is still hanging on by its fingertips. They were elected to provide cost-of-living relief, and so far they've been unable to deliver."

"If National want to go into the next election with some breathing room, families need to stop feeling the squeeze. That means growth, jobs, and rates relief."