Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: December 2024
Here are the headline results for December's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to November 2024 |
|
National |
34.2% |
↓4.6 |
|
Labour |
26.9% |
↓4.6 |
|
ACT |
13.0% |
↑4.5 |
|
Green |
8.3% |
↓1.0 |
|
Māori |
5.5% |
↑3.0 |
|
NZ First |
5.4% |
↓1.0 |
|
Other |
3.3% |
↑0.3 |
National is down 4.6 points to 34.2% from November while Labour is down 4.6 points to 26.9%. The Greens are down 1 point to 8.3%, while ACT are up to 13% (+4.5 points). New Zealand First is down 1.1 points to 5.4% while Te Pāti Māori is up 3 points to 5.5%.
For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is on 2% (+0.7 points), TOP is on 1.1% (+0.2 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.2 (-0.2 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to November 2024 |
|
National |
44 |
↓4 |
|
Labour |
34 |
↓5 |
|
ACT |
17 |
↑6 |
|
Green |
11 |
nc |
|
NZ First |
7 |
↓1 |
|
Māori |
7 |
↑1 |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National is down four seats on last month to 44 while Labour is down five seats to 34. The Greens are unchanged at 11 while ACT is up six on last month to 17 seats. New Zealand First is down one on last month to 7 while Te Pāti Māori is up one seat on 7.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 68 is up one seat from last month. On these numbers, National and ACT would not require the support of NZ First to form a government. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down four to 52.
Christopher Luxon remains unchanged from last month at 27.1% (+0.6 points) while Chris Hipkins is up 4.4 points to 19.9%.
David Seymour is at 5.8% (-1.6 points) matched by Winston Peters (-0.5 points) at 5.8% and Chlöe Swarbrick at 4.5% (-0.7 points).
40.2% of respondents named the Economy more generally as one of their top three issues, followed by the Cost of living at 37.4%, Health at 34%, Education at 17.5%, Treaty issues on 17.1%, Law and Order on 15.8% and Employment on 13.2%.
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Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 01 and Tuesday 03 December 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 01 and Tuesday 03 December 2024. The median response was collected on Monday 02 December 2024.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 908. There were 54 (5.4%) undecided voters and 25 (2.5%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.