ACT & Te Pāti Māori gain in final Taxpayers-Union Curia Poll for 2024. Centre-right commands comfortable majority

ACT, Te Pāti Māori, and the centre-right will be happy with the results of the final Taxpayers-Union Curia Poll for 2024.

The poll, conducted 1 to 3 December, has both National and Labour down 4.6 points from last month, National at 34.2% and Labour at 26.9%.

The Greens are down 1 point to 8.3%, while ACT are up 4.5 points to 13%. That puts ACT ahead of the Greens for the first time since February 2024.

New Zealand First is down 1.1 points to 5.4% while Te Pāti Māori is up 3 points to 5.5%.
For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is on 2% (+0.7 points), TOP is on 1.1% (+0.2 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.2% (-0.2 points).

When participates were asked what the most important issue is that would influence how they would vote, Cost of Living topped the poll with 22.5% (down 0.3 points), followed by the Economy at 18.8% (+0.6 points) and Health at 11.8% (+2.2 points). 8.4% of respondents (+3.3 points) said Treaty issues were the most important, followed by Law and order on 5.3% (-1.8 points), the Environment (4.6%), Employment (3.9%), Poverty (3.5%), Education (3.1%), and Housing (2.3%).

Taxpayers' Union spokesman, Sam Warren, said:

"On these numbers, the centre right would command 68 seats in Parliament - a comfortable majority. The National Party and ACT would not require NZ First to form a government."

"Despite what would appear to be a difficult few months for the Government, and the National Party getting the lowest party vote result in our poll since July 2023, the Labour Party does not appear to have been able to capitalise on it. At 26.9%, Labour is on the identical result as it received at last year's election."

"Although it is getting much media attention, just 8.4% of voters listed the Treaty as their top voting issue. That would suggest that media attention does not necessarily correlate to importance in the mind of most voters."

More information, including the Preferred Prime Minister results, is available at: www.taxpayers.org.nz/final_poll_dec2024